Flexed muscles do not mean war
he phrase eye-ball to eye-ball confrontation bandied in liberal measure to describe the longest and biggest military build-up against Pakistan on the Line of Control has made India IT Incorporated blink. In the last few days, business newspapers have been dominated by stories on the impact of the government's tough military posture on India's blue-eyed IT sector. From stories which stuck reassuring notes with 'business as usual' to the alarming with Nasscom predicting a dent in India's software exports if war breaks out, India's IT sector is now confused and worried. The reasons are not far to seek. War is inimical to good economics and India's high-pitched rhetoric has undeniably stuck a discordant note in the sector's growth plans. Twelve board members of a leading networking MNC, for instance, have cancelled their visit to the company's India development centre consequent to the travel advisory issued by the US government instructing citizens not to travel to India. Other MNCs operating out of India have been instructed to take adequate back-ups by the parent company in case of war. Software service companies such as Wipro have warned of longer decision cycles by US customers; and fears of India losing out entirely on offshore projects are on the upswing.
After warding the 9/11 attacks that threatened to freeze growth, the rising tension in India's software sector as the government ups the ante on the LOC is natural and understandable, but should not be used as a weapon to pressurise the government to deescalate tension. It is nobody's argument that India should declare an expensive and wasteful war on Pakistan and hurt its economy. In fact, this site has constantly argued for peace and dialogue in the face of high tempers. Indian industry needs to support the massing of troops and the current military build-up against Pakistan as the pre-war combative measures are one of the few viable options against the open export and endorsement of terror in Kashmir by Pakistan. This year alone, India's Border Security Forces assert, 402 armed militants have entered the Kashmir Valley. The largest number - 163 - crossed in May. Indian government' patience has been tried, tested and exhausted but the government cannot and will not go forward and declare war because: a) it knows that a war against terrorism cannot be fought through conventional means; two, although General Musharraf is playing a dangerous dual game, nobody want an unstable nuclear Pakistan with Afghan jehadis running amok. Against this backdrop, India has no choice but to line its border with troops and flex its military muscle to bring sustained international pressure on General Musharaff to rein the mind-numbing violence inflicted by terrorists in the Valley. As an editor of an Asian daily remarked; "Its only when India scares the pants-off the world that it wakes up to Kashmir."
The US media has raised fears of a possible nuclear Armageddon, forgetting India's commitment to no first use. Consider this 4 June report in USA Today: "The problem is once the iron starts to be exchanged between the two sides, then reason and logic seem to go out the window ....The US government fears that citizens of both countries, which first tested nuclear weapons in 1998, don't grphp the repercussions of a decision to go nuclear. In the West, schoolchildren learn about the devastating effects of the US atomic bombs dropped on Japan in 1945. But that's not the case in South Asia, There's never been a major movie about what would happen in a nuclear war. Even educated people often think about this in the abstract." The reports paint India as an irrational, immature third world nation unaware of the destructive potential of its nuclear arsenal. Driving these reports in the Western media is the fear that a redeployment of forces on Pakistan's Western front will jeopardise the hunt to dislodge terrorists entrenched firmly in Pakistan's Eastern territory. In a well-targeted practice of psychological warfare, Pakistan capitalised on world fears, raised the sceptre of a nuclear war in the UN and soon after test fired its nuclear-capable missiles, including one that can reach most of India's large cities.
Indian business may be hurt to some extent but war is less closer than it appears. The current leash straining is not a prelude to war but an essential measure to bring international pressure on Pakistan stop subversion from across the border; the first step to restore normalcy in violence inflicted Kashmir. Industry bodies like Nasscom need to take this story of the current build-up to the outside world rather than get upset by psychological propaganda which speaks of nuclear war and describe the region as the most dangerous place on earth.
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