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DATING DIAPERS AND DENIAL
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Ready for Anything: 52 Productivity Principles for Work & Life
The No A****** Rule: Building a Civilized Workplace and Surviving One That Isn't
Go Put Your Strengths to Work: 6 Powerful Steps to Achieve Outstanding Performance
Winning: The Answers - Confronting 74 of the Toughest Questions in Business Today
Know How: The 8 skills that separate people who perform from those who don't
Made To Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die
Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking
The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable
The Power of Nice: How to Conquer the Business World with Kindness
iWoz: From Computer Geek to Cult Icon: How I Invented the Personal Computer, Co-Founded Apple, and Had Fun Doing It
An Inconvenient Truth
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart Presents America (The Book): A Citizen's Guide to Democracy Inaction
Tough Choices: A Memoir
A Hand to Guide Me
Secrets of the Millionaire Mind
Rich Dad, Poor Dad
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Phishing : Cutting the Identity Theft Line
Manager's Guide to the Sarbanes Oxley Act
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The 80/20 Principle: The Secret to Success by Achieving More with Less
Bringing out the best in people
A Practical Guide to Easing Tension and Conquering Stress
Working relationships : The simple truth about getting along with friends and foes at work
101 Great Answers to the Toughest Interview Questions
Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap.. and Others Don't
Competitive Advantage (The profitability differentiator)
Competing for the Future (Blueprint for the future)
Digital Capital
Pipe Dreams (Greed, Ego and Death of Enron)
A Good Hard Kick in the Ass (New rules of business)
What the CEO Wants You to Know (Explicating the building blocks of business)
It's Not the Big that Eat the Small...It's the Fast that Eat the Slow (Reaffirms credo of Business@the speed of thought)
My Forbidden Face by Latifa (Tragedy of women in Taliban's reign of terror)
Big Brands Big Trouble (Jack Trout studies common mistakes of big brands)
No Logo (Crusade that announced death on the brand bullies)
My Pedagogic Creed (John Dewey's famous declaration concerning education)
Lexus and the Olive Tree (Anti-globalization is a search for the Sixties high)
A woman is made not born (Beauvoir's radical statement led to the second feminist movement)
Against Method(Outline of an anarchistic theory of science)
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (A paradigmatic work that changed the history of science forever)
The Dilbert Future
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Swimming Across
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Dot Bomb (A juicy insider account of the cyber madness of the Nineties)
Jack: Straight from the Gut (The global industrial titan paints a word picture of his self)
Next: The Future Just Happened (A mordantly funny exploration of the brave new world spawned by the Internet)
The Anatomy of Buzz (A groundbreaking guide to creating word-of-mouth magic that cuts through skepticism and information overload of today's consumers)
Rebel Code (A high-velocity chronicle of the open-source transformation taking place in the tech world)
The Attention Economy (An engrossing account of the human bandwidth deficiency facing employees in the internet economy)
An Excerpt from "Second Coming of Steve Jobs" (A fascinating, complex potrait of Apple's tech magician)
IBM and the Holocaust
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An Extract from "Pride Before the Fall" (A book on Microsoft's antitrust case)
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The Dilbert Future
 

Chapter 1

How to Predict the Future



The Dilbert Future
By Scott Adams
No of Pages: 256
Price: Rs.225

ome people try to predict the future by assuming current trends will continue. This is a bad method. For example, if you applied that forecasting method to a puppy, you'd predict that the puppy would continue growing larger and larger until one day--in a fit of uncontrolled happiness--its wagging tail would destroy a major metropolitan area. But that rarely happens, thanks to the National Guard.

The future never follows trends, because of three rules I have named after myself in order to puff up my importance.

Adam's Rule of the Unexpected

Something unexpected always happens to wreck any good trend. Here are some examples to prove my point:

Good Trend Unexpected Bad Thing
Computers asllow us to work 100 percent faster. Computers generate 300 percent more work.
Women get more political power. Women are as dumb as men.
Popular music continues to get better. I get old.

Adam's Rule of Self-Defeating Prophecies

Whenever humans notice a bad trend, they try to change it. The prediction of doom causes people to do things differently and avoid the doom. Any doom that can be predicted won't happen.

Here are some examples of dooms that people predicted and how the indomitable human spirit rose to the challenge and thwarted the prediction:

Prediction of Doom Human Response  
Population will grow faster than food supply Scientists realize you can call food supply.just about anything a "meat patty."
Petroleum reserves will be depleted in twenty years Scientists discover oil in their depleted in twenty years.own hair.
Communism will spread to the rest of the world All Communists become world.ballerinas and defect.

I might have some of the details wrong; I'm working from memory here. But the point is that none of those predictions came true once we started worrying about them. That's the way it always works.

Adam's Rule of Logical Limits

All trends have logical limits.

For example, computers continue to shrink in size, but that trend will stop as soon as you hear this report on CNN A computer systems administrator sneezed, and his spray destroyed the entire military computing hardware of North America, leading to the conquest of the United States by Haitian bellhops. More on that later, but first our report on the healing powers of herbal tea.

At that point, we'll say, "Hey, may be those computers were too small." That will be the end of the shrinking computer trend.

If all trends end, what can we look at to predict the future? There are some things in life so consistent that they are like immutable laws of human nature. You can predict most of the future by looking at these immutable laws and applying logic.

Immutable Laws of Human Nature

Stupidity

Selfishness

Horniness

Those are the things that will never change, no matter what else does. People don't change their basic nature, they just accumulate more stuff upon which they can apply their stupidity, selfishness, and horniness. From this perspective, the future isn't hard to predict.

I realize that by telling you my secrets I'm not only opening my kimono, but I'm also doing jumping jacks in front of your picture window, if you catch my visual gist. But I'm not worried about you learning my secrets, because I'll always be one step ahead of you.

Prediction Two

In the future, you will wish I had never put the image in your head of me doing jumping jacks in an open kimono.

Copyright © 2001 by Scott Adams


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